tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7989028641754974512.post2436858323169585864..comments2019-06-30T09:55:01.371-07:00Comments on A random physicist takes on economics: A Workers' History of the United States 1948-2020Jason Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7989028641754974512.post-68797384397898347712019-06-30T09:55:01.371-07:002019-06-30T09:55:01.371-07:00No worries — and great to put a face with a name. ...No worries — and great to put a face with a name. It's funny that I had no idea you were the same person!<br /><br />I can imagine that it probably wasn't taken all that well on Sumner's blog, what with the suggestion that monetary policy is largely irrelevant ... ha!Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7989028641754974512.post-7264104703807733662019-06-29T18:17:34.700-07:002019-06-29T18:17:34.700-07:00I'm going to do that. Sorry, but have been ver...I'm going to do that. Sorry, but have been very busy. I did link to it in the comments of Scott Sumner's blog. I'm Mike Sandifer, so we've exchanged some messages on Twitter too.Antihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17677035271760844211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7989028641754974512.post-52148647125136777602019-06-25T16:22:57.385-07:002019-06-25T16:22:57.385-07:00Plus, if you did like it, then it'd be great i...Plus, if you did like it, then it'd be great if you could leave an Amazon review! It helps make the book more visible in searches ...Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7989028641754974512.post-49134496002247122522019-06-25T11:33:39.131-07:002019-06-25T11:33:39.131-07:00Thank you so much!
I have yet to examine a lot of...Thank you so much!<br /><br />I have yet to examine a lot of other countries in detail yet, but in the few that I have seen high rates of labor force expansion not only raises inflation, but also creates a fluctuating economy. I wrote a post about it on the other blog:<br /><br /><a href="https://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2018/05/labor-force-participation-and-gravity.html" rel="nofollow">https://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2018/05/labor-force-participation-and-gravity.html</a><br /><br />My thinking behind it is that high rates of labor force expansion (high compared to population growth) are more susceptible to the business cycle. Unlike adding people at the population growth rate, adding people at an accelerated rate because of something else happening — women entering the workforce — is more easily affected by macro conditions. Population grows and people have to find jobs, but women don't have to go against existing social norms and enter the workforce in a downturn, but are more likely to do so during an upturn (i.e. breaking social norms gets easier if it pays better than if it doesn't).<br /><br />This would cause the business cycle to pro-cyclically amplify and modulate the rate of women entering the workforce, which gives rise to bigger cyclical fluctuations and also the Phillips curve.<br /><br />As a side note: I think a similar mechanism played out during industrialization, when people were being drawn from rural agriculture into urban industry. And also a similar mechanism plays out when soldiers return from war (post-war inflation and recession cycles).Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7989028641754974512.post-64093941032724123342019-06-24T22:19:00.082-07:002019-06-24T22:19:00.082-07:00I just finished the book, and it is a very interes...I just finished the book, and it is a very interesting read. Even if one doesn't completely buy the outlines of a possible new model, the commentary on social change in recent decades in the US is deep, often well-researched, and illuminating. It is excellent.<br /><br />I do see one obvious problem with the idea that money doesn't really matter, especially as it relates to the 0s inflation in the US. What has always struck me much more than the rise of inflation over the period is the macro instability. NGDP was all over the place. It is tempting to look at the effective Fed funds rate and conclude the Fed caused the instability by applying incorrect macro models and forecasts when adjusting monetary policy.<br /><br />Do you have an explanation for the macro instability of the period '68-'82?<br /><br />My initial thought is that monetary policy matters, but is more complicated than various monetarists and Keynsian schools would have one believe. Perhaps there's, at very least, an interaction effect between changes in labor demographics, for example, and the effects of monetary policy actions.Antihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17677035271760844211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7989028641754974512.post-22420546145025991992019-06-24T13:57:35.931-07:002019-06-24T13:57:35.931-07:00Thanks, Anti!
The book is structured so as to mak...Thanks, Anti!<br /><br />The book is structured so as to make bolder and bolder (and more controversial) claims as you continue. The first chapter is the pretty straightforward bit to ease into the idea of social forces, so get ready for fun!Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7989028641754974512.post-18525583188863645552019-06-24T10:28:46.052-07:002019-06-24T10:28:46.052-07:00Good read so far. Read the first chapter just befo...Good read so far. Read the first chapter just before bed last night. Very thought-provoking. I'm thinking of implications, both for conventional theory and for replacing it.Antihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17677035271760844211noreply@blogger.com