Monday, June 24, 2019

A Workers' History of the United States 1948-2020





#1 New Release in Macroeconomics
After seven years of economic research and developing forecasting models that have outperformed the experts, author, blogger, and physicist Dr. Jason Smith offers his controversial insights about the major driving factors behind the economy derived from the data and it's not economics — it's social changes. These social changes are behind the questions of who gets to work, how those workers organize, and how workers identify politically — and it is through labor markets that these social changes manifest in economic effects. What would otherwise be a disjoint and nonsensical postwar economic history of the United States is made into a cohesive workers' history driven by women entering the workforce and the backlash to the Civil Rights movement — plainly: sexism and racism. This new understanding of historical economic data offers lessons for understanding the political economy of today and insights for policies that might actually work.
Dr. Smith is a physicist who began with quarks and nuclei before moving into research and development in signal processing and machine learning in the aerospace industry. During a government fellowship from 2011 to 2012 — and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis — he learned about the potential use of prediction markets in the intelligence community and began to assess their validity using information theoretic approaches. From this spark, Dr. Smith developed the more general information equilibrium approach to economics which has shown to have broader applications to neuroscience and online search trends. He wrote A Random Physicist Takes on Economics in 2017 documenting this intellectual journey and the change in perspective towards economic theory and macroeconomics that comes with this framework. This change in perspective to economic theory came with new interpretations of economic data over time that finally came together in this book.
The book I've been working on for the past year and a half is now available on Amazon as a Kindle e-book or a paperback (link here until they get them together on the same page)**. Get your copy today! Or pick up a copy of A Random Physicist Takes on Economics if you haven't yet ...




And once you've had a chance to read it, stick around and leave your first impressions, comments, criticisms in the open thread below ...

**Paperback should be available soon. Update: Now Available. As of 6:50am PDT 24 June 2019, KDP still says "publishing". Also, as of 2pm PDT the Kindle edition still says it's the #1 New Release in Macroeconomics on Amazon, so I replaced the cover graphic (show below).


Tuesday, April 9, 2019

A Workers' History blurb


Here's my draft book blurb (these things are weirdly the hardest things to write):
After seven years of economic research and developing forecasting models that have outperformed the experts, author, blogger, and physicist Dr. Jason Smith offers his insights about the major driving factors behind the economy derived from the data and it's not economics — it's social changes. These social changes are behind the questions of who gets to work, how those workers organize, and how workers identify politically — and it is through labor markets that these social changes manifest in economic effects. What would otherwise be a disjoint and nonsensical postwar economic history of the United States is made into a cohesive workers' history driven by women entering the workforce and the backlash to the Civil Rights movement — plainly: sexism and racism. This new understanding of historical economic data offers lessons for understanding the political economy of today and insights for policies that might actually work.
Feel free to let me know what you think in comments ...

Friday, February 1, 2019

A Workers' History update: February 2019

Updated 7 Feb 2019. I'm now finished with the first draft — I was out with a cold all week and 2" of snow in Seattle brought the city to a halt (ha!) so I had tons of time. It has been an interesting journey of discovery — I've had to revise some of the models (like this improved explanation of the housing crisis where there's no housing bubble), and found a lot more connections between the various streams of data. That first one required me to re-make the cover ... what will probably be its final version:


I explained my thinking in response to a comment on my other blog that I should get someone else to design it:
The cover design I'm working on now is in reference to Piet Modrian's abstract Paris work from the inter-war period, using a font (Futura) from the same time period. But it's also of the economic seismogram from the Great Recession. This (roughly) bookends the same time period I am writing about in the book. Additionally, the blue color is borrowed from my previous cover (the red is its RGB transpose) which was based on the blueberry analogies in the book but also a reference to the Velvet Underground's first album (and Andy Warhol cover).
Updated 7 Feb 2019. Here are the table of contents and the opening paragraphs of the first draft (click to enlarge):


I'm also recommending two books that I'm using to help understand the the subject of the second chapter on the decline of manufacturing:

    

I've added them to my side bar.

Friday, November 23, 2018

A Workers' History update

I'm at about 11,000 words (about 1/3 of my goal — about the same length as A Random Physicist Takes on Economics). At this rate, I'll probably be done much sooner than the end of 2019. I've finally collected all of the data I think I need and analyzed it with the dynamic information equilibrium model. On my more technical blog, I wrote a bit about one of the newer analyses looking at unionization and inequality. In that blog post I tested my draft diagrams for the book (in black and white so they render on a Kindle). Click to enlarge:


I also updated the cover art. I changed the color to be more blue — the same blue as on the cover of A Random Physicist [1].



Footnotes:

[1] You can see them side by side (plus an alternate less spaced-out title):




I think I might go for Century Gothic or Futura (on which it was originally based) for the cover font for that Keynesian-era feel ...


And here are the spaced-out title versions:



Ok, one last pair — this one includes two data series in the first version above, but were left out in all the single spaced versions. The data was left out because it's actually left out in the diagram inside the book, but also it increases the size of the spacing between lines by about 10% so the single-spaced version isn't cramped. At this point, I'm leaning Futura but then the kid loves Gorillaz and Studio Ghibli which use Century Gothic (the former on the Demon Days cover, the latter in their English titles).



Tuesday, November 6, 2018

A workers' history of the United States 1948-2020


It's been awhile since I've posted at A random physicist. I figured since I am going to be self-publishing, I am going to have to give myself my own deadlines. I plan on my second book, A workers' history of the United States 1948-2020, coming out in December of 2019, which gives me a little over a year to write and edit. It should come out in time for people to read before the bulk of the 2020 primary season. I was partially inspired to start writing this book based on this article in the NYRB suggesting that nothing came of the 2008 recession — history failed to turn at a potential turning point. I say it's still too early to say that.

The main thesis of the book will be that changes in labor force participation due to social factors are the primary drivers of economic change in the United States in the post-war period. It will be broken into three broad chapters:

I. Women in the workforce
Women entering the workforce and the social changes that both inspired and followed it were the source of the post-war economic boom as well as inflation.
II. The decline of unions
The breakdown in the post-WWII national unity into racial and gender divides broke the social contract resulting in domestic manufacturing jobs (and their unions) predominantly held by men at the time being shifted overseas, only to be finished off by the shipping container.
III. The Great Recession
The collapse of immigration from Mexico not only popped the housing bubble causing the worst recession since the Great Depression, but brought on the subsequent stagnant growth.
The title (currently, just a play on Friedman and Schwartz's monetary history) and cover are of course subject to change, as well as this structure. Feel free to leave comments (or tweet/DM me @infotranecon). And if any publishers out there are interested in working with me, feel free to contact me via:

contact@arandomphysicist.com

Monday, February 5, 2018

A short review from Diane Coyle

Diane Coyle, economist at the University of Manchester and recent winner of the inaugural Indigo Prize, wrote a bit about my book at her blog The Enlightened Economist:
[A Random Physicist Takes on Economics] also made me think about the role of context or environment, and why this might be more influential than individual choice processes in determining economic outcomes. Smith alludes to the literature on biological market theory, pointing out, though, that this does not rest at all on the utility of biological agents, be they pigeons or fungi.
The context it appears (touching on information with two other books from Daniel Dennett who I discussed on my blog) in is also interesting so read the whole thing.

Friday, January 5, 2018

How's this book thing going?

I haven't updated the book blog here in awhile because after the initial release, there hasn't been a lot of news. Diane Coyle mentioned on Twitter today that she'd read it and enjoyed it, and is going to write about it at some point in the future —which I'm looking forward to!


I'd like to thank everyone who has bought a copy! Overall, I've sold a few hundred copies (mostly the e-book version) most of which came in the first month with another burst around the holidays. As an aside, the e-book price is based on the Amazon "Kindle single" target pricing. The paperback pricing is based on several factors: a self-imposed "Carbon tax" as I wanted to encourage e-book purchases, the cost of on-demand printing, as well as interpolation between the list prices of two Dover paperbacks I own that my book fits between:

   

By the way, that is one of the best introductions to differential forms books for science applications around.

It has been a fun experience publishing through the Amazon Kindle bookstore and it's remarkably easy with a minimum of tedious formatting even for the paperback version. I'm in the process of collecting some notes and outlining a future book on dynamic equilibrium that I'm tentatively calling A Dynamic Information Equilibrium History of the United States: 1920-2020 as a pun on Milton Friedman's book with Anna Schwartz. In it, I plan to write a re-interpretation of the economic history of the US based on the dynamic equilibrium model (graphic below). I will make the case that the social change of women entering the workforce is one of the primary events of the post-war period.